Super Bowl Sunday Service Play Thread 02/12/2023

[BuzzKill]

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[BuzzKill]

 

[allchaulk]

Jazzy Ray

e% Philadelphia ML

 

[Yankees5560]

Fezzik | NFL Prop - Sunday, Feb 12 2023 6:30PM
KC Mahomes O

(-115)DraftKings 101 KAN vs 102 PHI double-dime bet

Analysis: 2* Play

KC Mahomes Pass Yards OVER 288 -115

Draft Kings has 287.5, FanDuel 288.5, many other books have this same number(s).


This play is good up to 290.5

I was hoping to wait until 3pm PST today to give out any plays, but this was going to get hit before that...... so I had to give it out


*****

I will outline EVERY bet I personally make; many of these will not be available, but look for them, and Note this is what I have bet for myself:

A team miss 2 fgs?	-500	NO
Both teams 35 fg	-130	NO
More Points 2h	-145	2h
More Tds than fg	-330	Tds
KC team 2h OV 12	-125	KC OV 12
Sanders 1st td v Pacheco	-115	Sanders
Sanders 1st td vs. Mckinon	-160	Sanders
Mahomes OV 37.5 att	105	Mahomes
Mah OV 287.5	-110	Mahomes
Opening KO t back	155	NO tb
A start QB neg yds	-750	NO
SC 1st 3 min	-550	NO
2h-.5 -110 vs. 1h	-112	2h
short TD un 1.5	-155	UN 1.5
1h UN 25-119	-119	UN 25
Philly spread	1.5
KC spread	2.5

LEAN KC at current number...


Reminder:

DO NOT TEASE the Super Bowl

LOOK to AVOID all "needle in haystack" bets like exact final score, exact number of points scored, who will score 1st Td, etc.

Focus on bets with just 2 outcomes, bet OV/UN, Yes/No

In general, typically if there is value it is betting on the bigger vig side of a prop bet.

By example, if we get NO OT -800 that's good. YES Otime 6-1 is TERRIBLE

 

[Yankees5560]

HITMAN | NFL MoneyLine - Sunday, Feb 12 2023 6:30PM
ML 101 KAN (+110) William Hill vs 102 PHI double-dime bet

Analysis:

 

[Yankees5560]

HITMAN | NFL Prop - Sunday, Feb 12 2023 6:30PM
Mahomes O

(-115)DraftKings 101 KAN vs 102 PHI single-dime bet

Analysis:
Patrick Mahomes (KC) O286.5 pass yds -115

 

[BuzzKill]

R&R Totals

*TOP PLAY* NFL: Take #101 Chiefs v #102 Eagles UNDER (50 -110) (6:30 PM EST) at circa
TOP NFL Over-Under

 

[BuzzKill]

R.J. White

NFL | KANSAS CITY @ PHILADELPHIA | 02/12 | 6:30 PM EST
PHILADELPHIA -1.5
ANALYSIS: Both QBs get a much-needed two weeks to recuperate, and we'll likely see better play from both than we had in the previous round. But outside of QB, the Eagles are likely to be the much healthier team, and it's anyone's guess which receivers the Chiefs will have available. They've survived all year without top-tier talent at the position, but even Patrick Mahomes would struggle to execute the offense with a stable full of practice-squadders. Throw in a few key injuries on defense and it's understandable while Philly is favored here. The Eagles have a much stronger O-line than the one the Chiefs beat up on last week, and they hold up well enough to give the Eagles a chance to keep playing from ahead.

 

[BuzzKill]

Gianni the Greek

101) kc-phi : Under 7.5 (-160) total punts…(2%)
102) miles sanders (phi) : Over 26.5 (-125) rushing yrds (1st half)…(2%)

 

[steve021]

Brandon Lang: Eagles

 

[JayGrace]

Stanford Steve

eagles -1.5
Eagles/chiefs over 50.5

 

[Koy_Detmer]

Stanford Steve‘s Top 5 Prop Bets

1. Travis Kelce over 9.5 targets (-125)
2. Kenneth Gainwell over 11.5 Rec yards (-121)
3. Kenneth Gainwell over 34.5 Rush + Rec Yards (-115)
4. Brandon Graham To record a sack (+180)
5. Jalen Hurts Under 31.5 pass attempts (-125)

 

[dough]

Essler NFL

3* Under 51

 

[coachH]

DavidN?

 

[breeze]

King Creole
3* Under

 

[Koy_Detmer]

Brad Feinberg

Eagles -1.5
over 49.5
Dallas Goedert over 49.5
Mahomes over 1.5 TDS
Kelce over 76.5

 

[crawdads2424]

NFL PINNACLE MAXX BET SUPER BOWL​

Handicapper: Wayne Root

League: NFL

Competition: Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles

Time: Sunday, February 12, 06:30 pm ET

Bet Type: Point Spread

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs +1.5 (-110) (BetMGM)

Analysis:

Pinnacle on Kansas City Chiefs Kansas City survived the Bengals in the AFC Championship Game to reach the Super Bowl for the third time in four seasons. The Chiefs seek their second Super Bowl trophy in that span as they take the field here with experience leading the way. In the AFC title game against Cincinnati, the Chiefs held a 357-309 edge in total offense, picked up 23 first downs while allowing 18, won the time of possession by a 32:51 to 27:09 margin and forced two turnovers while committing one. On the season, the Chiefs are first in the league in passing offense with an average of 297.8 yards per contest this season. Kansas City stands 20th in the league in rushing offense as they grind out 115.9 yards per game on the year. The Chiefs are first in the league in scoring offense as they put up an average of 29.2 points per contest. Kansas City stands 16th in scoring defense by allowing 21.7 points a game this year. We all know that Patrick Mahomes is the signal caller for the Chiefs and he’s completed 435 of 648 passes for 5,250 yards with 41 touchdowns and 12 interceptions on the year. He’s second on the team with 358 rushing yards plus four scores. He has proven intangibles that Jalen Hurts might not have. One key point to make at this time is that the Eagles played the 31st easiest season schedule. In the playoffs, they beat up a beaten Giants team and a very injured 49ers team after they lost their quarterback. They will be exposed somewhat in this game. We’re certainly not saying they are undeserving but the public is enthralled with the QB and the Philadelphia story. As for Patrick, in the postseason Mahomes is 51 of 73 passing for 521 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions; a proven champion and leader. As for Sunday, the Eagles' first injury report ahead of the game was extremely light. On Wednesday, tackle Lane Johnson (groin), cornerback Avonte Maddox (toe) and center Cam Jurgens (hip) were all marked as limited, though each had rest designations listed next to them as well. As for KC, Kadarius Toney (ankle/hamstring) was the lone player listed as limited for the team on Wednesday's injury report. A key factor is that of quarterback Hurts. Will Hurts’ shoulder be a factor at all after missing two late season games? He hasn’t had to throw much in the first two playoff games but that could change here. In a game where things are so close any hard hit could have him still playing but staying in the game making poor throws. We look for the Chiefs to put up 31-34 points. That will be enough for the Kansas City Chiefs to win another Lombardi Trophy.

 

[doczano]

North Coast Newsletter Keys

Score Forecast:
Kansas City 29
Philadelphia 21

power plays and power sweep both pick:
B KC

 

[savage1]

North Coast Newsletter Keys

Score Forecast:
Kansas City 29
Philadelphia 21

power plays and power sweep both pick:
B KC

Let me know when PowerSweep/Powerplays/Phil Steele/NC ever disagree on a pick for VERY obvious reasons!! lol

 

[dough]

Burns NFL

5% Eagles ML